BloombergNew York MTA Ridership to See Permanent 20% Drop, Moody’s Says(Bloomberg) -- Ridership on New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, t
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Bloomberg
New York MTA Ridership to See Permanent 20% Drop, Moody’s Says
(Bloomberg) — Ridership on New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the largest public transit system in the U.S., is expected to decline permanently by 20% as people will continue to work remotely, according to Moody’s Investors Service.Demand for subways, buses and commuter rails will fail to rebound to pre-pandemic levels as commuting into New York City for work is expected to decrease over the long term, Moody’s analysts wrote in a report released Thursday. That could reduce revenue by 8%, according to the report, which also addressed the finances of the transit systems in London, Paris and Vancouver.“The sharp increase in remote working during the pandemic is likely to result in a permanent shift in the labor force to more flexible working patterns, with fewer days spent in offices,” the Moody’s analysis said. “A relocation of some residents away from large cities and towards smaller cities and suburban areas” is also likely.MTA’s subway ridership in recent days has hovered at around 35% of pre-outbreak levels, up from as low as 7% in April last year. The agency will receive a combined $14.5 billion of federal aid to help close budget gaps through 2024, but it has high fixed costs.The agency had $48.2 billion of outstanding debt as of March 2, according to its website. Debt-service payments and pension contributions account for 30% of operating expenditures, compared with 20% for London’s system and less than 5% for Paris’s, according to Moody’s.Investors have been demanding less compensation to hold MTA debt as the authority has received unprecedented federal aid and as more people get vaccinated against the coronavirus, raising the prospect that ridership could continue to recover.An MTA revenue bond with a 4% coupon and maturing in 2045 traded Thursday at an average yield of 2.6%, or around 90 basis points more than top-rated municipal debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That yield spread is down from above 200 basis points when the MTA sold the debt in October.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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Bloomberg
U.S. Manufacturing Surges Most Since 1983, Underscoring Rebound
(Bloomberg) — U.S. manufacturing expanded in March at the fastest pace since 1983, catapulted by the firmest orders and production readings in 17 years. The data add to evidence of an economy poised to accelerate.A gauge of factory activity jumped to 64.7 from 60.8 a month earlier, according to Institute for Supply Management data released Thursday. Index levels above 50 indicate expansion and the March figure topped all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.Stronger growth in new orders and output highlight accelerating household and business demand as increased vaccinations, fewer pandemic-related restrictions and fiscal relief provide a clearer path for the economic recovery. Stocks extended gains after the report.“The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in March,” Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement. At the same time, purchasing managers “reported that their companies and suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing rates of demand due to coronavirus impacts limiting availability of parts and materials.”All but one of 18 ISM manufacturing industries reported growth in March, led by textiles, electrical equipment and appliances, machinery and computers and electronic products.The U.S. data mirror results from around the world. Factory activity across Asia strengthened after the volatile Lunar New Year period, with Taiwan leading the way, according to IHS Markit. The group’s purchasing managers index for the U.K. advanced to a decade high, while euro area manufacturing was historically strong.Order BacklogsThe ISM’s measure of U.S. order backlogs climbed in March to the strongest reading in records back to 1993 and a gauge of supplier delivery times reached an almost 47-year high. Both indexes underscore supply challenges faced by producers that are also paying more for raw materials and shipping.Shortages of semiconductors have been particularly disruptive to the auto industry, where production in recent months has been restrained due to the lack of supply. On Wednesday, Ford Motor Co. announced it was idling plants that make its best-selling F-150 pickup truck because of chip shortages.On a call with reporters, Fiore said that while manufacturers previously anticipated the supply-chain challenges would be resolved in several months, “there’s a feeling now that we’ll go into the summer or into late summer. That struggle will continue as demand continues to grow, which is positive.”President Joe Biden announced Wednesday a sweeping infrastructure proposal that calls on Congress to invest $50 billion in semiconductor manufacturing and research.Select ISM Industry Comments“Demand remains strong. Significant supply impacts on raw materials due to the Texas freeze. All major raw-material and suppliers on force majeure.” – Chemical Products“Business conditions are positive for our industry and company. The constraints are mainly related to parts availability (imports, supply chain congestion). Manpower is also a constraint; hiring new members is a challenge.” – Transportation Equipment“Qualified new hires are an ongoing challenge. We have had to provide better compensation to keep qualified talent.” – Fabricated Metal Products“Suppliers are struggling to manage demand and capacity in the face of chronic logistics and labor issues. No end in sight.” – Machinery“Business bottomed out in February; we are expecting steady improvement through the end of the year.” – FurnitureAt 85.6 in March, the group’s index of prices paid for inputs was little changed from February’s 86 reading that was the highest since July 2008.Growing order backlogs, increased production and faster orders growth have encouraged manufacturers to beef up headcounts. The ISM’s measure of factory employment improved to a more than three-year high of 59.6 in March from 54.4 a month earlier.The government’s monthly jobs report on Friday is projected to show manufacturing payrolls increased by 35,000 in March, the strongest in four months. Overall employment is forecast to rise 650,000.Meanwhile, lean business inventories suggest robust output and orders to factories will be sustained in coming months. The ISM’s gauge of customer inventories dropped to the lowest in records back to 1997. None of the 18 manufacturing industries reported higher customer inventories.With demand seen picking up in the summer months as more of the nation gets vaccinated against the coronavirus, producers may expect to see order books and assembly lines staying full.(Adds graphic)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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Bloomberg
Legacy Autos Claim Their EV Premium After Missing 2020 Rally
(Bloomberg) — The big three Detroit automakers beat Tesla Inc.’s quarterly stock gains for the first time since the second quarter of 2019 after shares in the legacy car companies rose on aggressive plans to compete with the electric carmaker.If 2020 was the year when Tesla’s colossal stock gains put smaller electric-vehicle startups into focus, 2021 has so far been all about traditional automakers embracing the electrification trend.General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and Stellantis NV — the owner of Fiat Chrysler — all announced plans to shift into EV technology during the March quarter, joining a growing list of peers including Volkswagen AG and BMW AG in trying to convince investors they too offer exposure to the industry. But the moves have introduced yet another element of volatility that analysts say makes it harder to predict where the nascent sector might be headed next.Among the best performers, shares of GM, Ford and Volkswagen have gained at least 35% since the start of the year, while Tesla has retreated 5.4%. The last time Tesla underperformed Detroit automakers was in 2019 when sentiment was suffering after an ugly first-quarter result. That was also the last time Tesla underperformed the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts index, which gained 19% this quarter.“What we have here is a market that has broadly accepted that vehicle electrification is going to occur, but is struggling to properly price that,” JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha said in an interview. “The market has now moved from ‘we will buy anything that smacks remotely of EVs’ to ‘who do we really think will be successful here.’”Osha said it’s hard to tell if the recent outperformance by incumbents will last, but that within the group GM and Volkswagen are the only ones to move decisively into electric vehicles.The rush of EV announcements comes as U.S. President Joe Biden has pledged to promote clean transportation, including initiatives to build more than half a million charging stations by 2030, restore the full EV tax credit and institute stricter regulations that would encourage the use of electric cars. Plans to replace the federal fleet with EVs is also a central component of his new infrastructure spending bill.“Given the Biden administration’s focus on decarbonization, and combined with increased commitment by automakers, we believe a greater focus on electrification could emerge in the U.S.,” Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy wrote in a March note. The analyst estimates fully electric vehicles will account for a third of auto sales by 2030.The moves by legacy carmakers have also coincided with waning enthusiasm for riskier EV startups amid fears a rise in federal Treasury yields could translate to higher borrowing costs. Shares of Workhorse Group Inc., Nikola Corp. and Nio Inc. all ended the quarter lower.“Things simply went too far and it has all reversed in 2021,” Chuck Lieberman, chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management said, discussing the valuations of EV companies. While at one point Tesla’s value was greater than the entire U.S. auto industry put together, the rest of the global auto industry was not going to “lay down and cede the entire market to Tesla,” Lieberman said.Moreover, the bleak performance by Tesla and other EV stocks this year is unlikely to be indicative of the future of electric cars. Even for the EV-startup stocks, a recovery may already be underway. Most of the shares in the group rose sharply in premarket trading on Thursday, after Biden’s speech on Wednesday evening confirmed his administration’s focus on clean transportation and the plans for encouraging greater and faster EV adoption in the country.Global EV sales rose by 43% in 2020, reaching 4.2% market share, while the overall auto market shrank by 15%, according to UBS research.“The diverging paths of automakers have been confirmed during the pandemic,” UBS analysts and strategists led by Mark Haefele wrote in a note. “This trend looks set to continue and will benefit pure EV makers, as well as traditional automakers that are adapting fastest to the growing consumer preference.”(Updates to add moves in EV stocks after Biden speech in eleventh paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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Bloomberg
Richard Li’s FWD Leaning Toward U.S. for $3 Billion IPO
(Bloomberg) — FWD Group Ltd., the acquisitive Asian insurance firm backed by billionaire Richard Li, is leaning toward New York as its preferred venue for an initial public offering this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.The company, whose business spans Southeast Asia, Japan and Hong Kong, is seeking to raise about $3 billion through an IPO in the U.S. as soon as the third quarter, the people said. A deal could value the insurer at more than $15 billion, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private.FWD is working with advisers to adjust its accounting records to U.S. standards and plans to file with regulators in the second quarter, the people said. A U.S. listing would allow Li to keep control of the company via his investment manager Pacific Century Group, one of the people said.The insurer has been considering a range of options over the last few months including a first-time share sale in Hong Kong, Bloomberg News reported in September. FWD has also weighed plans such as a U.S. listing through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, the people said.No final decision has been made and the other potential routes to a listing remain under consideration, the people said. A representative for FWD declined to comment.Founded in 2013, FWD has made numerous acquisitions across Asia in recent years. It has a presence in countries including Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, Japan and Malaysia, according to its website. Its minority shareholders include fellow insurer Swiss Re AG as well as GIC Ventures, RRJ Capital and Hopu Investments.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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Bloomberg
Taiwanese Battery Maker ProLogium Is Said to Weigh SPAC Deal
(Bloomberg) — ProLogium Technology Co., the Taiwanese solid-state battery maker, is considering going public later this year, people with knowledge of the matter said.The company is holding talks with potential advisers about options including listing in the U.S. through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. While discussions are at an early stage, any deal could give ProLogium a multibillion-dollar valuation, the people said.ProLogium’s lithium ceramic batteries are thinner and lighter than conventional battery packs and are seen as safer for use in electric vehicles because they have a lower risk of exploding upon impact, according to its website. The company formed a joint venture in March with Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup JSC to produce solid-state batteries in the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub. ProLogium launched a Singapore subsidiary, ProLogium Innovation, last year.State-owned automaker China FAW Group Co. and an arm of Bank of China Ltd. invested in ProLogium last year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. ProLogium hasn’t made any final decisions, and the company could decide to stay private for longer, the people said. A representative for ProLogium didn’t immediately respond to emailed queries.Several other battery startups have gone public as they prepare for soaring demand from the electrification of the car industry. QuantumScape Corp., the technology developer that’s partnering with Volkswagen AG on advanced batteries, listed in New York last year by merging with a blank-check company and is now valued at $15.6 billion.Norwegian battery manufacturer Freyr AS agreed in January to merge with blank-check firm Alussa Energy Acquisition Corp. In February, Houston-based Microvast Inc. announced plans to go public through a deal with Tuscan Holdings Corp.(Updated with additional context in third paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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Bloomberg
Credit Suisse Shareholder Says Archegos Is ‘Wake-Up Call’
(Bloomberg) — David Herro said Credit Suisse Group AG’s expected losses from the Archegos Capital crisis should lead to sweeping changes to its culture and oversight practices.“Risk controls still are not where they should be,” Herro said in an interview with Bloomberg Television Wednesday. “Hopefully this is a wake-up call to expedite the cultural change that is needed in this company.”The chief investment officer of Harris Associates — one of Credit Suisse’s largest shareholders — said that while the damage can be repaired, Harris would re-examine its investment if changes weren’t forthcoming.“If we believe that the management team we are invested with are not capable of producing value in the future, then we will sell the stock,” Herro said. “At this stage, we are not there with Credit Suisse.”Credit Suisse warned on Monday that it faces big losses tied to Archegos, a U.S. hedge fund that defaulted on margin calls. The figure may run into the billions, according to people with knowledge of the matter, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said media speculation of a $3 billion to $4 billion loss was “not an unlikely outcome.” The Archegos furore comes at the same time the bank is gauging the financial impact of Greensill Capital’s collapse.Herro also said Chief Executive Officer Thomas Gottstein, who took the helm last year, is the right person for the job. Outgoing chairman Urs Rohner bore the brunt of his criticism as he called for a clearout of “the people who are responsible for accepting a culture that doesn’t balance risk and return.”Rohner “has been on top of this organization for 10 years and presided over this,” Herro said. “I only wish the board would have acted sooner in removing him.”Spying ScandalHarris supported Tidjane Thiam, Gottstein’s predecessor, when he was caught up in a spying scandal in 2019. Despite Herro’s backing, the scandal led to the ouster of Thiam after a power struggle with Rohner, and rattled the usually quiet world of Swiss banking.Credit Suisse may still be suffering from that decision, Herro said.“One of the things that didn’t help was when we had the spygate scandal over a year ago and we lost some good people– the CEO, the chief operating officer,” Herro said. “That left a bit of a void.”Herro, who welcomed the imminent arrival of new chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio as an opportunity to reset the organization, also said it would be “prudent” of the Swiss lender to pause its share buyback program. In a subsequent Bloomberg Radio interview, he even ruminated on the unlikely possibility of the investment banks of Credit Suisse and cross-town rival UBS Group AG joining forces.“Especially in light of what has happened in the last few weeks, one has to ask oneself whether there is something that can be done to add critical mass to these investment banks by putting them together,” he said.(Updates with details throughout.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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Benzinga
Bitcoin Is Trading Near Record-High Again But Analyst Says We Are Staring At A Meltdown
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent gains may be short-lived and “the whole rally in crypto is getting very long in the tooth,” according to Boris Schlossberg, a leading foreign exchange expert. What Happened: “I think we’re very, very close to perhaps an intermediate-term top here. A little bit of a correction is certainly due at this point,” Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” BTC traded 0.54% lower at $59,354.38 over the past 24 hours at press time, but was up 11.2% over the past week, indicating a recovery. It has an all-time high of $61,683, hit last month. See also: How to Buy Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin’s Recent Gains: The cryptocurrency’s recent gains came after PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) said it will allow its U.S. customers to use their cryptocurrency holdings to pay at millions of online merchants around the globe. PayPal’s move came a day after payments giant Visa Inc (NYSE: V) said it would allow payments to be settled directly via cryptocurrency on the Ethereum blockchain. Schlossberg noted that Bitcoin’s high degree of volatility will likely mean transactions on platforms such as PayPal’s will be “infinitesimally small” compared to regular currency. However, he feels Bitcoin is a better store of value than gold. See Also: Why Is Ethereum Surging, Outperforming Bitcoin Today? CME Group’s Plan: Further, Schlossberg said that derivative exchange CME Group Inc.’s (NASDAQ: CME) plan to launch Micro Bitcoin futures contracts on its platform in early May could rattle bitcoin’s price even if investors like it or not. The Micro Bitcoin futures will be one-tenth the size of one Bitcoin. Schlossberg noted that Bitcoin topped out the last time CME launched bitcoin futures in late 2017. Matt Maley, chief marketing strategist at Miller Tabak, said in the same “Trading Nation” interview that if Bitcoin moves to the downside below $52,000, its going to be a “big warning flag” and give the cryptocurrency its first lower low of the year. Maley added it Bitcoin breaks above its recent highs of $61,000, it “should see another leg higher.” However, he agreed with Schlossberg that bitcoin is going to see a lot more big declines along its way in a very volatile session. Read Next: 5 Best-Performing Cryptocurrencies Of Q1 (No — Bitcoin, Dogecoin Don’t Make The Cut) See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaTesla Will Be Employing A Lot More People At Giga Texas Than It Thought It WouldCramer Says Forget Tech And Look To These Sectors In Q2© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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Bloomberg
Volkswagen’s U.S. Name Change Was an April Fools’ Joke Gone Awry
(Bloomberg) — Volkswagen of America’s purported name change to “Voltswagen” was an April Fools’ joke gone bad.On Monday, the automaker briefly posted, then removed, a draft press release on its website supposedly announcing it was changing its name to promote electric vehicles. VW then put out a media release Tuesday pledging to rebrand itself “Voltswagen” in the U.S. as “a public declaration of the company’s future-forward investment in e-mobility.”Later Tuesday, the company fessed up.“The renaming was designed to be an announcement in the spirit of April Fools’ Day,” VW said in a statement after removing the earlier release from its U.S. media site. “We will provide additional updates on this matter soon.” Earlier, a VW spokesperson at the German manufacturer’s headquarters in Wolfsburg called it “an interesting idea” from the marketing department.VW may have gone too far in its effort to gin up buzz for its electrification push and the electric ID.4 crossover, which is just arriving in U.S. showrooms. Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess has taken on a more active role in getting the message out that the company can challenge Tesla Inc. as an electric leader and distance itself from a disastrous diesel-emissions scandal.Not FunnyThose stakes are too high to joke about, said Tom Morton, chief strategy officer for the U.S. at advertising firm R/GA in New York.“This is the most pressing challenge of the auto industry: ‘Can you go electric?’” Morton said. “Choosing to joke about it undermines their commitment.”VW has become a stock-market darling of late with its rapid-fire EV announcements. Its common stock has soared about 80% this year, giving the company a market value of roughly 140 billion euros ($165 billion). The shares fell as much as 3.2% in early intraday trading Wednesday in Frankfurt.Diess held a Tesla-esque “Power Day” presentation earlier this month in which he pledged to build six new battery factories in Europe. VW plans to deliver 1 million plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles this year, and Diess aims to surpass Tesla in EV sales no later than 2025. Some analysts predict it will happen much sooner.It’s not unheard of for companies to use humor to gain publicity for a radical change, Morton said. IHOP famously renamed itself IHOB — the International House of Burgers — in a temporary stump to draw attention to its lunch menu.“That’s mainly being done by fast-food brands, where the stakes are lower and they need a bit of hoopla,” Morton said, drawing a distinction with VW’s situation. “This is about a fundamental change of direction for a world-shaping industry and also one where there’s a lot of baggage.”Prior GaffeIt’s the second major marketing gaffe for VW recently. The automaker caused an uproar last year with a video clip that showed a black man being controlled by a giant white hand.The clip produced by Omnicom Group Inc.’s Berlin-based subsidiary Voltage sparked widespread criticism and tensions within the company. The automaker’s powerful labor representatives called it a “low point” and demanded an overhaul of social-media marketing.VW vowed to tighten internal marketing controls but stopped short of removing executives and severing ties with agencies.(Updates with shares trading in the eighth paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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MarketWatch
Taxpayers won’t have to file extra paperwork to get this valuable unemployment tax break, IRS confirms
The Internal Revenue Service has an important message for people who already filed their 2020 taxes before a valuable tax break became law. The exemption only applied to 2020 jobless benefits, but the problem was, around the time President Joe Biden signed the sprawling relief package in early March approximately 66 million households had already filed their 2020 income taxes. As the pandemic battered businesses, a peak of 23 million people were out of work in April 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Bloomberg
Archegos-Linked Stocks Advance as Fallout Fears Ease
(Bloomberg) — The stocks at the center of the Archegos Capital Management crisis posted gains Tuesday as fallout from the fund’s liquidation appeared to be contained and no additional block trades were reported.ViacomCBS Inc. rose 3.6% in New York following its weeklong plunge, with Discovery Inc. and Tencent Music Entertainment Group both climbing more than 4%. The American depositary receipts of Chinese companies also gained, with GSX Techedu Inc. boosted by a planned stock purchase by its chief executive officer, and Vipshop Holdings Ltd. helped by a $500 million buyback proposal.Shares in the companies, which also include Baidu Inc., Farfetch Ltd. and Iqiyi Inc., have had a rocky couple of sessions following the forced liquidation of positions linked to Bill Hwang’s Archegos, with ViacomCBS down 55% in the five trading days through Monday. While investors remain nervous about the potential for more liquidations, there have been no signs yet of a broader contagion. The S&P 500 Index slipped about 0.3%.“Market participants will be glad to see this has so far been contained — though there may be some more trades related to Archegos that need unwinding,” Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said by email. “Banks left holding the bag — which look to be Nomura and Credit Suisse more than others — will suffer significant losses.”Banks roiled by the Archegos Capital fallout may see total losses in the range of $5 billion to $10 billion, according to JPMorgan. Losses from trades unwinding will be “very material” in relation to lending exposure for a business that is mark-to-market and holds liquid collateral, analysts led by Kian Abouhossein wrote in a note.Read more: JPMorgan Says Banks’ Archegos Hit May Be Up to $10 BillionShares in Credit Suisse and Nomura both extended Monday’s steep declines, with the lenders having warned of potential “significant” losses after an unnamed U.S. hedge-fund client defaulted on margin calls. The Swiss bank expects its loss tied to the implosion of Archegos Capital Management to run into the billions, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Credit Suisse fell about 3% in Zurich trading, taking its decline for the week to 16%. Nomura shed a further 0.7% in Tokyo, following Monday’s 16% slump.Stocks valued at $2.64 billion changed hands in a flurry of block trades Monday. Five of them valued at a combined $2.14 billion were executed by Wells Fargo & Co., according to a person familiar with the matter. Separately, about 20 million shares of Rocket Cos. were sold through Morgan Stanley, people familiar with the matter said.Breaking SilenceArchegos broke its silence on the matter late Monday.“This is a challenging time for the family office of Archegos Capital Management, our partners and employees,” Karen Kessler, a spokesperson for the firm, said in an emailed statement. “All plans are being discussed as Mr. Hwang and the team determine the best path forward.”Kessler works at Evergreen Partners, which specializes in crisis communications and reputation management, according to its website.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has been monitoring the forced liquidation in holdings linked to Archegos, a spokesperson said.(Updates share price moves throughout.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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